Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Knowing when somebody is on a draw

So this is another scenario that has cost me chips my last few sessions.  I'd like to know how better players can sniff this out:

In the cutoff with AJos, middle position raised to $8, 3 callers including myself.  Flop comes TsJs5c.  Everyone checks to me and I bet $22.  UTG (a semiloose player) calls, everyone else folds. 

...ok, so the fact that he check/called $22 here leads me to believe he has a fairly narrow range of hands.  His best case he flopped a set and he's hoping he can bleed me for chips by getting me to bet.  Worst case he has something like a T or mid pp and he wants to see what I do on the turn to see if he could steal on river.  I have position, so he may not put me on a J.  However, I believe the likely scenario is that he has either spades or an up-and-down str8 draw.  If the turn misses, I'm gonna turn up the heat.

So Turn card is 6c.  He thinks about it for awhile and checks.  Generally when somebody thinks about it and then checks, in my experience this is a ploy to get you to think they have something when they really don't, but they think it will slow you down thinking that they might be setting a trap.  I immediately bet $60.  He snap calls....SHIT!

River comes 2d.  Great card for me.  He thinks about it for awhile and checks.  I only have $50 or so left in front of me.  I decide to check behind him, even though I'm 90% sure I'm ahead.  He shakes his head and says "just a crappy 2p", and shows his 5cTc. 

I replayed this hand in my head 5x and cannot think of how to play it different/better.  Although I did consider he possibly flopped a set of 5s, with the str8 and flush draws on the board, I'm quite certain this player either would have bet the turn, or more likely check/raised the turn when a brick hit the board. 

1 comment:

  1. I think you played this hand absolutely perfect 100%.

    You made 2 key moves that define the hand.

    1. Great flop bet to build value and thin the herd.

    2. Awesome turn bet! You fired way steep, and that allowed you to check the river when you sensed the danger.

    -You only had 1 pair, but you used your position and did everything +EV.

    -You got to showdown with good $ in there, but avoided getting stacked.

    Keep this one on the front page of your poker memory. It happens ALL THE TIME. And its perhaps the #1 moneymaker for good players, during just about every session they play. You only need to make 1 pair to pull it off!

    It boils down to the 80/20 factor. 80% of the time A,J is way good here...

    ..20% of time 10,5 gets you. Ewww. What a donk.

    You'll get him the next 4 times though.

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