I've tracked my poker wins/losses since the beginning of July, and Oceans 11 tracks my hours, so I have a pretty good guage at this point as to how I'm playing.
After 128 hrs of play, I'm up $796. Basically $6/hr...pretty crappy. I know I'm not a total donk like some of the players I see, but I'm nowhere close to where I think I'm capable of playing. The last 2 sessions are a microcosm of my play and I think are a good illustration of what a slightly above break-even player looks like.
Two sessions ago, I played for roughly 2.5 hrs and cashed up $306. This was in large part due to one hand:
9d8d in hijack seat. 2 callers, I call, SB (very loose player) raises to 12, BB calls, and I call with position.
Flop comes 5s6s7h! SB is short stacked and decides to go ahead and push his last $45. BB wants to isolate and repushes allin for $150ish! Talk about X-Mas. I obviously call. Turn and River are bricks, no spades (only thing I'm worried about). SB says, "I got a str8", BB says "me 2"....I'm thinking I'm chopping with at least 1 of them. Nope...both had 3-4 suited!
I caught a few other decent pots, but nothing earth shaking. Long story short, I caught good cards and finished a winner.
Fast forward to my next session. -$300
I won't go through every agonizing beat, but I basically last due to 3 hands, each of which I think a better player would have avoided.
Hand #1
Middle position with 7d8d, UTG raises to 6. 2 call before me, I call and so does SB.
Flop 7h8s2h
SB leads out for 8 (pretty solid player), 1 caller, I make it 25. SB thinks about it for a minute and goes allin for 104 more. I run through every scenario in my head and the only scenarios I can see are an overpair like TT, a flush or str8 draw (or both), or a set of 2s. (he's not likely to have 77 or 88 since I have one of each) I'm thinking, if he has 22, why not smooth call the 25, pray the turn is a brick (if he puts me on a draw) and bleed me for some more chips? Or, is this a semibluff? I made the determination that he most likely has 22, and not trusting my own instincts, I make the call hoping I'm wrong, but figuring even if I'm right I still have 4 outs. He felts 22.
Rebuy #2
I have KQ 3rd to act. UTG makes it 6, 1 caller, I call, folds around to SB who makes it 12. What the hell does that raise mean? I saw this move once before from him and saw he had aT std. Everyone calls.
Flop KQA rainbow. SB throws out continuation bet of 20, folds to me, I make it 50. He thinks, then puts me allin for my last 50 or so. I've gotta call there given the $ in the pot, but I don't feel good about it. I know he doesn't have a set or else he would have bet more. TJ is a possibility, but not likely for this guy. I'm thinking (hoping) more likely an AT or AJ, possibly AQ or AK. 50/50! Well, at least I can guess hands right when I'm behind. Turn and river are bricks and he felts AQ.
Rebuy #3
I lose a pretty sizable chunk in one of my first hands w/JJ, raised to 15 preflop, button calls. Board has a q and A, and I cont bet for 25, they raise, I fold. Less than 1 orbit later, I'm in hijack w/8dKd. Raise to 6, 2 callers, I call, BB calls.
Flop 884 rainbow.
BB bets 10, 1 caller, I smooth call. Turn is a 5, BB bets 10 again, other guy folds, I raise to 35. BB calls. At this point I'm putting him on an 8, I just hope I have him outkicked. River is a Q, he bets $40, I only have $55 left, and I shove it in. He instacalls and felts 8-5. Well, at least I was ahead on the flop on this one.
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